Live forecast
Snapshot · 2026-07-09Model 1.0.0Who wins the 2026 World Cup?
Win probabilities for every match and every path to the final. Every forecast graded against the real result.
- Powered by 100,000 simulations per forecast
- Updated every match day
- Graded after every result
- Method published in full
- Free to read
24
perfect calls
56%
of calls rated strong or above
85%
of winners correctly called
In 67 matches with a clear winner, the model picked the right side 57 times
0
missed calls
Across 91 matches, the model was never completely wrong about a result
Scorecard
How the forecasts are doingWithin expectations
Locked before kickoff, graded after the whistle.
Rated at 69% when markets had 62%
Beats marketsRated at 61% when markets had 57%
Beats marketsRated at 69% when markets had 66%
Beats marketsRated the result at just 10%
91 of 96 matches graded
Today's matches
Sat 11 Jul
2 matchesMatch signals
28 fixturesWhich team has the edge? A quick read of model predictions, form, momentum, and match conditions for every upcoming fixture.
- South AfricavCanada17 signals11%Signals favour Canada89%
- GermanyvParaguay17 signals78%Signals favour Germany22%
- BrazilvJapan17 signals97%Signals favour Brazil3%
- NetherlandsvMorocco17 signals64%Signals favour Netherlands36%
- FrancevSweden16 signals95%Signals favour France5%
- Ivory CoastvNorway17 signals12%Signals favour Norway88%
- MexicovEcuador17 signals59%Evenly matched41%
- EnglandvDR Congo16 signals90%Signals favour England10%
- BelgiumvSenegal17 signals97%Signals favour Belgium3%
- United StatesvBosnia and Herzegovina17 signals92%Signals favour United States8%
- PortugalvCroatia17 signals97%Signals favour Portugal3%
- SpainvAustria16 signals89%Signals favour Spain11%
- SwitzerlandvAlgeria17 signals97%Signals favour Switzerland3%
- ArgentinavCape Verde17 signals87%Signals favour Argentina13%
- AustraliavEgypt17 signals35%Signals favour Egypt65%
- ColombiavGhana17 signals92%Signals favour Colombia8%
- ParaguayvFrance17 signals16%Signals favour France84%
- CanadavMorocco17 signals16%Signals favour Morocco84%
- BrazilvNorway17 signals79%Signals favour Brazil21%
- MexicovEngland17 signals34%Signals favour England66%
- PortugalvSpain17 signals22%Signals favour Spain78%
- United StatesvBelgium17 signals20%Signals favour Belgium80%
- ArgentinavEgypt17 signals90%Signals favour Argentina10%
- SwitzerlandvColombia17 signals32%Signals favour Colombia68%
- FrancevMorocco18 signals80%Signals favour France20%
- SpainvBelgium17 signals77%Signals favour Spain23%
- NorwayvEngland18 signals21%Signals favour England79%
- ArgentinavSwitzerland18 signals83%Signals favour Argentina17%
Featured
Path to the final: every team's bracket mapped
The knockout bracket is set. We traced every team's path from the Round of 32 through to the final. Argentina's route to the title match could avoid every top-10 side until the semifinal. Austria's path runs through Spain, Portugal, and France before a potential final against Argentina. The bracket halves are wildly unbalanced: five of the eight highest-rated teams are crammed into the top half, guaranteeing a bloodbath. Here is the full map.
Featured
What 54 World Cup matches taught the model
The group stage is almost over. Fifty-four matches graded, every probability scored. The model's overall Brier is 0.541, better than its own pre-tournament backtest of 0.572. But that headline masks a rougher truth: a brutal opening week, a draw blind spot the calibrator never saw coming, and heavy favourites who kept stumbling. Here is the full scorecard, the experiments we ran mid-tournament, the results that survived testing, and the ones that didn't.
Featured
Every player rated, every substitute mapped: deep match visualization is live
Every fixture page now has a deep interactive visualization: starting XIs, scoring threat, player ratings, defensive shape, synergy lines, and squad-depth analysis. Click any player, swap them for their real bench alternative, and watch the model recalculate. France's most irreplaceable player is not Mbappe. Argentina get better when Otamendi sits. The numbers are all here.
Top contenders · model probability
Full table →Latest posts
Around the World Cup
Headlines link out to their source. Model moves are changes between our own probability snapshots.
Last 34 days
Biggest probability moves
Compared to model run 34 days ago (2026-05-21).
Reach semi-final
New result46.9% → 35.8%
Reach round of 16
New result80.3% → 69.8%
Reach quarter-final
New result61.3% → 52.3%
Reach quarter-final
New result47.5% → 38.5%
Reach semi-final
New result46.4% → 37.6%
Reach quarter-final
New result56.8% → 48.1%
Tags show the likely driver — a new result, a model update, or knock-on redistribution — not a proven cause.
Players to watch
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Research
How the numbers are made
Every probability is published before kickoff and scored after the result. Full methodology in the open.
Data API
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Public data. Published method. Live scorecard. Every number on this site traces back to public data, a documented model, and a scorecard you can check. No black boxes, no hidden inputs.